how much higher is the risk of ending up in hospital without vaccination with covid-19 than with vaccination with a vaccine breakthrough infection or vaccine complications? i have not found any figures on this, so here’s how I did my own math.
The risk of hospitalisation due to Covid-19 can be calculated individually with this online tool by the Oxford University: https://qcovid.org/Calculation (Don’t be shocked: they evaluate ethnicity, as it statistically seems to make a difference).
Let’s assume you have a fairly low hospitalisation risk of 0.035%.
In May 2021, out of 1.1 million 187 double-vaccinated people in the UK contracted Covid-19, this is 0.017%. Same figure in Lower Saxony, Germany, where it was 622 out of 4.6 million, i.e. 0.013%, 4% of them had to be hospitalised. With an average of 0.015% probability of falling ill multiplied by a 4% probability of being hospitalised, the total risk of ending up in hospital despite double vaccination is 0.0006%.
Cross check: That would be 480 patients in a population of 80 million. This is matched by the news that a total of 119 vaccinated people throughout Germany received intensive care in August and September this year.
But what about the tangible risk of vaccine side effects? You may not be able to avoid Covid-19 but you can still avoid a vaccination.
Here, a distinction should be made between vaccine reactions and vaccine complications. The former is a normal and desirable reaction of the body.
It may be unpleasant in individual cases, and in the case of the self-employed it can be accompanied by loss of earnings. But it is nothing life-threatening. That leaves the serious vaccination complications that are classified as “medically significant or treated in hospital” – comparable to the risk of Covid-19 hospital treatment. Here we are talking about 6 cases for mRNA vaccines at baseline and 1.5 cases combined 7.5 cases based on 1 million cases so we have another risk of 0.00075%
I do not consider the risk of undetected long-term damage.
Since no late effects have been discovered with vaccinations in recent years, the probability must be set at a value close to zero.
A vaccination is therefore associated with a risk of 0.00135% of contracting covid due to vaccine breakthroughs or vaccine complications. Compare that general risk* to your individual risk of contracting Covid-19.
Divide your low unvaccinated Covid-19 hospitalisation risk of 0.035% with this value. It is 26 times higher than the remaining and acquired risks of a vaccination.
Yes, this is offset by not unlikely vaccine side effects: Fatigue, headache, fever, muscle aches, chills, dizziness, aching limbs.
I had the full package for a week with my second vaccination.
To protect me and you from hospitalisation.
* There is plenty of information available on individual risks for specific medical conditions. Please note that this is an essay on statistics not a medical advice.